The most recent data (as of this writing) show an approval rate of 44%. As the number of seats to defend increases, the greater the number of seats lost.Īpproval: President Biden’s approval ratings have been in the low 40% range for most of 2022.
Partisan seat swings in midterm elections are consistently correlated with two factors: Turnout is likely to be larger than normal, and usually that would be expected to favor the Democrats. Nor do we have any explicit measure of conditions and candidates in specific elections. There is no measure of current national controversies (for example, abortion or Trump-related litigation controversies). Like many midterm projections, these estimates are based on aggregated data. A Democratic loss in the House of fewer than 12 seats would be very unexpected. Graphs below show the two-variable relationships.ĭemocrats have a 9 seat margin currently in the House (with four seats vacant) and the parties are tied in the Senate. The prediction range includes the possibility of a narrow Democratic gain in the Senate, but loss of the majority in the House seems likely. There are large error bounds around these estimates. Using the data we discuss below (and provide here) we would expect Democratic seat losses of around 30 in the House and 3 in the Senate. If the Democrats lose control of either House, the Administration can expect to be the target of numerous disruptive congressional inquiries. The incumbent president’s ability to launch new major policy initiatives would be greatly weakened under divided government. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice.
The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
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